There is so much fog in the great greenfield planning controls row that it makes your head ache trying to see through it all.
Yesterday morning the front-page headline story in The Times was Planning Revolt Fuels Fears Over Economy, giving massive prominence to (and, by implication one would have thought, thereby seeking to reinforce): (1) the argument of David Frost of the British Chambers of Commerce that ministers must defy opposition to their plans to ease restrictions on greenfield development otherwise economic growth will be imperilled; and (2) Vince Cable's statement that groups opposing those plans are "semi-hysterical".
So we know where The Times stands on that I thought, but then I turn to its leading article on page 2 with the sub-heading: The Government is Ignoring Some Genuine Concerns in the Countryside. It needs to Balance the Demands of the wider Economy and the Local Landscape.
This reminds me that the previous day The Times had devoted an entire page to an Opinion piece by Alice Thomson with the headline The Looting Continues - in the Countryside in which Alice ridiculed the Government's planning proposals and accused Greg Clarke, Eric Pickles, Chris Huhne, David Cameron et al of being a bunch of economically illiterate vandals.
Today The Times devotes the same Opinion page to a piece by Phillip Collins: Want a Home? Lose a Hedgerow. That's Progress in which he basically argues precisely the opposite case to Alice Thomson's.
I am left wondering whether The Times is having difficulty distinguishing its arse from its elbow; whether it is simply genuinely trying to give equal space to all sides of the argument, or whether there is some kind of internal power struggle going on with different editorial staff having control over different pages at different times and using that power to further their sharply differing views.
Whichever it is, a great deal of wisdom and a great deal of bollocks is all getting hopelessly jumbled together. Alice Thomson is absolutely right to argue that the housing problem is not caused by lack of space for houses but lack of money to buy them; and that housebuilders are hoarding hundreds of thousands of plots of land assuming that the new rules will lead to a free-for-all. She is right also to attack the Government for its insane green energy policies which achieve nothing but hugely increased energy costs and the hideous scarring of landscapes. But she is wrong to throw opposition to HS2 into the pot. If HS2 is needed in the national economic interest the countryside has to be sacrificed for it to be built. Unavoidably. So the argument is just an economic one: is HS2 really needed or not? It is not an argument about the Planning System. Housing is undoubtedly needed but it is far from clear that a flawed planning system is the cause of any of the problems we have, so that IS an argument about the planning system. (The green energy row is basically a religious one: only those believing they are doing God's work could possibly think there is a case of ANY kind for Huhne's lunacies).
By conflating the housing and HS2 arguments Alice Thomson is doing the building lobby's dirty work for it, because it too is only too happy to conflate them to support its spurious line that relaxation of greenfield planning controls is necessary to correct a housing shortage. Have you noticed in fact that they are usually careful not to blame the controls themselves but planning "red tape", the implication being that it is not the criteria used to decide cases but the slowness of the decision-making that causes the housing shortage. Just speed things up, they imply, and all will be OK. Third rate journalists taking their text from the press releases of the developer lobby repeat the same bollocks. If speed of decision-making were the problem, it wouldn't be a problem would it? Because any given volume of applications meeting the criteria for approval would produce exactly the same volume of approvals at any given moment regardless of the length of time taken; speeding it up just reduces the time from application to approval in each case, not the volume of approvals coming out on any given day. Yes it might reduce builders' costs, but only if you assume that the delay is caused by needess "red tape" rather than by builders failing to comply with criteria for approval, being refused, then appealing, then having central government planning inspectors second-guess the decisions of local planning committees etc. Can you think of a single major infrastructure project where the time getting it through the planning system has been more than a tiny fraction of the total time taken for the Government or quango concerned to make up its mind to do it and get the budget in place for it?
Phillip Collins shrouds it all in even more mist by arguing that the shortage of housing is causing people to rent rather than to buy, leading to a sharp increase in the percentage of renters over buyers and driving up rents. Er, hello?.. whether people live in owned or rented houses they are still houses so the demand and supply of houses is just the same. Yes rents are rising but not because the supply of houses is falling; if it were, house prices would be rising too, but they are not, they are falling. That's becasue there is no shortage of supply of houses, just a shortage of savings, income and mortgages to buy them.
In fact I'm far from clear that a national swing back from buying to renting is such a bad thing. It could be argued to be an essential and unavoidable part of the correction of a bubble process that left many bankrupt with negative equity, placed home ownership beyond reach even for middle-income families, wrecked the banking system and plunged the economy into deep recession. Listening to the building lobby it is very interesting to hear them crying one day about falling house prices as though they are a national disaster and screaming the next day for more greenfields to build on because it will .... er, bring house prices down.
The central but pretty much unspoken idea on which the developers' campaign and the Government's proposals appear to be based is (1) that, yes, while it may be the case that ample housing could in theory be built on brownfield land, it cannnot be in practice because available brownfield sites are too expensive for the housing built on them to be affordable and/or are not located where the housing is needed; and (2) houses built on a greatly expanded supply of greenfield sites will bring down house prices not so much by increasing supply (since that could be done on brownfield anyway) as by reducing costs. But if you believe that you might as well go and mine the moon for green cheese. Have you noticed any difference between the prices builders charge for homes on their greenfield sites and their brownfield ones in the same areas? And if you believe that builders are sitting on hundreds of thousands of brownfield sites waiting for prices to rise before they build (and if you don't you're living on another planet), why do you believe that they won't do the same thing on greenfield sites?
And even if that's an unjust accusation - even if the real truth is that the builders bought the brownfield sites at the height of the bubble and have no choice but to hang on for prices to recover because they'll go bust if they build and sell at current market-clearing prices - so what? That's what market's are for isn't it? Let them go bust; let the land then be auctioned of to the highest bidder and let them build at the new market price. I haven't noticed the Government riding to the rescue of any of the tens of thousands of poor sods who went bust with negative equity in their own homes when the housing bubble burst. Why should builders be immune? Slap a tax on greenfield developments tomorrow to make greenfield no more profitable than brownfield and stand back to watch the deluge of brownfield housing development that will then happen (and use the revenues to help people get mortgages).
I am in fact basically sympathetic to the idea that building houses on nondescript isolated greenfields will often be less of a loss and cause less real distress to existing communities than cramming more houses into suburban gardens or suburban extensions. I therefore have some sympathy with the central idea in the Government's proposals that local councils should have the power to decide which greenfields should be used for housing rather than be driven by the ludicrous Soviet-style regional planning system Labour introduced. But the essential corollaries of that are: (1) that power should be held by local authorities alone: responsibility for every decision should be seen to rest squarely and solely with them so that local electors can punish them on polling day if they do not reflect local wishes, which means that (2) there should be NO right of appeal to central government planning inspectors against local decisions to refuse.
The trouble with even this scenario however is that in many constituencies overwhelming majorities vote even for a monkey wearing the right colour rosette, leaving councillors confident they can get away with murder. The incentives for them to try therefore need to be minimised, which leads me to the conclusion that the current system under which developers make planning gain payments to local councils should be scrapped and replaced by one in which any revenues flow not direct to local councils but to central government and are used to fund national programmes to help people get the mortgages they need, not funnelled back to local authorities.